ARIMA models¶

Example¶

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import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
from pandas.io.data import DataReader
from datetime import datetime
import pyflux as pf

ibm = DataReader('IBM',  'yahoo', datetime(2000,1,1), datetime(2016,3,10))
ibm['Logged Open'] = np.log(ibm['Open'].values)

model = pf.ARIMA(data=ibm,ar=1,ma=1,integ=1,target='Logged Open')

Class Arguments¶

class ARIMA(data, ar, ma, integ, target)¶

data¶

pd.DataFrame or array-like : the time-series data

ar¶

int : the number of autoregressive lags

ma¶

int : the number of moving average lags

integ¶

int : how many times to difference the time series (default: 0)

target¶

string (data is DataFrame) or int (data is np.array) : which column to use as the time series. If None, the first column will be chosen as the data.

Class Methods¶

adjust_prior(index, prior)¶

Adjusts the priors of the model. index can be an int or a list. prior is a prior object, such as Normal(0,3).

Here is example usage for adjust_prior():

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import pyflux as pf

# model = ... (specify a model)
model.list_priors()
model.adjust_prior(2,pf.Normal(0,1))

fit(method, **kwargs)¶

Estimates latent variables for the model. Returns a Results object. method is an inference/estimation option; see Bayesian Inference and Classical Inference sections for options. If no method is provided then a default will be used.

Optional arguments are specific to the method you choose - see the documentation for these methods for more detail.

Here is example usage for fit():

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import pyflux as pf

# model = ... (specify a model)
model.fit("M-H",nsims=20000)

plot_fit(**kwargs)¶

Graphs the fit of the model.

Optional arguments include figsize - the dimensions of the figure to plot.

plot_predict(h, past_values, intervals, **kwargs)¶

Plots predictions of the model. h is an int of how many steps ahead to predict. past_values is an int of how many past values of the series to plot. intervals is a bool on whether to include confidence/credibility intervals or not.

Optional arguments include figsize - the dimensions of the figure to plot.

plot_predict_is(h, past_values, intervals, **kwargs)¶

Plots in-sample rolling predictions for the model. h is an int of how many previous steps to simulate performance on. past_values is an int of how many past values of the series to plot. intervals is a bool on whether to include confidence/credibility intervals or not.

Optional arguments include figsize - the dimensions of the figure to plot.

plot_z(indices, figsize)¶

Returns a plot of the latent variables and their associated uncertainty. indices is a list referring to the latent variable indices that you want ot plot. Figsize specifies how big the plot will be.

predict(h)¶

Returns DataFrame of model predictions. h is an int of how many steps ahead to predict.

predict_is(h)¶

Returns DataFrame of in-sample rolling predictions for the model. h is an int of how many previous steps to simulate performance on.