WALL STREET STOCKS/AMES DEPT STORES <ADD> Ames Department Stores Inc fell 1-7/8 to 23 in what analysts said was a reaction to a surprise announcement earlier today by the company that earnings in the fiscal year ended January 31 will decline sharply. Ames said it expects to report earnings of between 72 and 77 cts per share compared with 1.19 dlrs per share in the previous year. "We were looking for 1.15 dlrs," said an analyst at a major Wall Street firm who declined to be identified. Ames said most of the decline resulted from an inventory shortage at its Secaucus, N.J. distribution center. "The obvious suspicion is that there has been some kind of fraud or theft," said Ralph Shulansky, senior vice president of Ames. "We do not have hard evidence we are still putting things together." He said it would take several weeks for the company to complete an investigation. He said there are no law enforcement officials involved at this time. He declined to quantify the inventory shortage but said it was the major reason for the decline in earnings. A decline in gross margin percentage and an increase in the effective tax rate also contributed to the downturn, Ames said.