FED'S POLICY EASE MAY END WITH 2ND QTR RATE CUT The Federal Reserve's move to easier monetary policy, begun with four quick half-point discount rate cuts in 1986, will likely end with a final rate drop in the second quarter, analysts said. A poll of 10 economists shows most expect interest rates to edge lower, with the Fed likely to drop its basic lending rate from 5-1/2 pct late next quarter to help the economy. "The Fed is not likely to ease policy much further without a full-blown recession," said Raymond Stone, chief financial economist at Merrill Lynch Capital Markets. Stone said economic data available by late June may be just weak enough to prompt one more discount rate cut. But he said it may only be a quarter-point drop instead of the usual half point, to avoid hurting the dollar further. All of the economists agreed that the Federal Open Market Committee tomorrow will leave Fed policy unchanged. The average forecast of those surveyed projects roughly quarter-point drops by the end of June in both the Treasury bond yield, to 7-1/2 pct, and the Federal funds rate at which banks lend to one another, to 5-7/8 pct. Most expect the prime lending rate at major banks to remain at 7-1/2 pct. Other broad predictions of the survey, relating mainly to the April-June quarter, follow: - The dollar is likely to decline five to 10 pct further against other major currencies because of a large U.S. budget deficit and a wide, but narrowing, trade gap. Contacted after the dollar's steep drop in the last two business days, the economists reaffirmed this view but stressed the risk is that the dollar will fall more, rather than less, than they expect. - Oil prices in the second quarter are likely to continue trading roughly between 16 and 19 dlrs a barrel and could well test the lower end of that range. - Stocks will continue to outperform bonds next quarter and probably for all of 1987. Stocks should gain on strong foreign demand and a modest second-half economic rise. The outlook for bonds also is less favorable later in the year since both inflation and interest rates may be edging up. - Inflation as measured by the GNP implicit price deflator will rise to around 3.3 pct this year from 2.7 pct in 1986. The sharp fall in the dollar to date will add to inflation, as will a mild economic pickup in the second half of this year. - U.S. real gross national product, which grew at a two pct annual rate in the 1986 second half, should expand at respective rates of about 2.3 pct and 2.5 pct in the 1987 first and second halves. First-quarter growth is put at a 2.4 pct annual rate, slowing to 2.1 pct next quarter. Robert Brusca of Nikko Securities Co International sees both the strongest economy and the highest interest rates among those surveyed. He expects real GNP, which grew at a 1.1 pct rate in fourth-quarter 1986, to expand at a 3.3 pct rate this quarter and 3.5 pct next quarter. "The economy will bounce back more strongly than many expect," Brusca said. He said an involuntary buildup in inventories, largely in autos, will add to first-quarter economic growth, with consumer spending helping later. "We're running out of special factors to keep the economy afloat," said Philip Braverman of Irving Securities Corp. His interest rate and economic forecasts were among the lowest. Braverman said tax law changes and inventory accumulation helped lift fourth and first quarter GNP growth, respectively. He expects 2.5 pct first quarter growth but said that second quarter growth could be zero or negative. Braverman said economic activity next quarter will suffer from a paring of inventories, lower capital investment, slow government spending and less construction. Only a marginally narrower trade deficit will add to growth. He sees a 7.10 pct end-of-June yield on Treasury bonds, with Federal funds and prime rates at 5.50 and seven pct, respectively. Nikko's Brusca projects rates of 8.25 pct for bonds, 6.15 pct for funds and 7.75 pct for the prime rate. Two of the 10 economists revised rate forecasts up mildly after the dollar's fall to 40-year lows versus the yen in past days and news of pending U.S. trade sanctions against Japan. David Resler of Nomura Securities Co International Inc raised his end-June bond yield forecast to 7.50 pct from 7.20 pct and a Fed funds rate estimate to six pct from 5.80 pct. Raul Nicho, president of Money Market Services Inc, lifted his forecast of bond and Fed funds rates an eighth of a point to eight pct for bonds and 6-1/4 pct for funds. Both Nicho and Resler left their end-June prime rate forecast at 7-1/2 pct. The higher rate forecasts reflected a belief that Japanese investors will be less eager to buy U.S. bonds because of fear about further dollar erosion and perhaps in response to U.S. trade sanctions. Yields may have to rise to lure other buyers. ......END-JUNE U.S. INTEREST RATE FORECASTS.... ....................T-bonds..Fed funds..Prime.. Nikko Securities.....8.25......6.15......7.75.. Money Mkt Services...8.00......6.25......7.50.. Discount Corp........7.75......6.25......7.50.. Merrill Lynch........7.30......5.75......7.50.. Bankers Trust........7.25......5.50......7.50.. Wells Fargo Bank.....7.30......5.60......7.00.. Irving Securities....7.10......5.50......7.00.. Dean Witter..........7.00......5.50......7.00.. .FORECAST AVERAGE....7.50......5.875.....7.50.. .CURRENT LEVELS......7.80......6.125.....7.50..