ECONOMIC SPOTLIGHT - POLISH SANCTIONS Poland says U.S. Sanctions have cost its economy 15 billion dlrs and has made clear it wants Washington to take a lead in repairing the damage after lifting remaining restrictions two weeks ago. Polish officials are unable to provide a precise breakdown of the figure, saying it takes into account a number of hypothetical losses. Some of them are "too sophisticated to convert into financial terms," one banking source said. But Western economic experts say the effect of sanctions is impossible to calculate. They say it is blurred by the poor performance of Poland's economy, and dismiss the 15 billion dlr figure as illusory. "Sanctions have provided a very useful excuse for under- achieving. They did have a bad effect, yes, but they only contributed to largely internal, economic problems," one said. The U.S. Imposed the measures and withdrew Most Favoured Nation (MFN) trading status from Poland in 1982 in retaliation for suppression of the Solidarity free trade union under martial law. The estimated cost to the Polish economy was originally devised several years ago by the Institute of National Economy, an offshoot of the central planning commission. According to one Western envoy, an expert on Polish economic affairs, it extrapolated 1979 information on growth trends in trade with the United States, as well as increases in credits from Western commercial and government lenders. But the calculations were based on a time when trade was booming and credits still flowed freely, he said, dismissing the estimate as "a theoretical projection based on a high point, which has no real scientific evaluation." A foreign trade ministry official said Polish exports to the U.S. In the late 1970s averaged around 400 mln dlrs annually and had fallen by half since the sanctions were imposed. Imports have suffered, slumping from around 800 mln dlrs to 200 mln, as credits ran out. Poland has a dwindling trade surplus with the West. Last year it was one billion dlrs against a targeted 1.6 billion, official figures show. Acknowledging that sanctions have lost Poland important U.S. Markets -- including agricultural equipment, textiles, chemicals and some foodstuffs -- Western economists say credits dried up for economic not political reasons. "Poland is accusing the West of letting economic relations deteriorate for political reasons," said one expert. "It's an illusion based on a misunderstanding of Western economy." "There's a limit to how much you can go on giving someone who has no hope of repaying it," another said, adding that Poland had benefited from a global phenomenon of easy credits in the 1970s which were no longer today's reality. Describing the 15 billion dlr assessment as "nebulous," one diplomat said it also included losses of hypothetical orders and setbacks to Polish research through the curbing of scientific links and exchanges. Western officials say the lifting of sanctions and new MFN status will have little impact on Poland, which has a hard currency debt of 33.5 billion dlrs and lacks the means to modernise its industry. "MFN doesn't really mean anything, only that Poland will not be treated worse than other countries. It will be difficult to regain access to the U.S. Market because different forces are in play now," said one Western envoy. He said Polish products were not competitive, and their quality was too low. Trade wars and possible protectionist measures amongst the U.S., Japan and Europe would also hamper Poland's efforts to regain entry. Deputy foreign trade minister Janusz Kaczurba recognised this fact recently. Kaczurba told the official PAP news agency recently, "Making up our lost position will take a long time and be uncommonly difficult, and in certain cases impossible... In a period of two to three years it will be possible to increase the level of exports by only about 100 mln dlrs." While Poland is unlikely to seek compensation, it says it has a "moral right" to assistance from the U.S. Which it says imposed the sanctions illegally. But a Western economist said "The argument that U.S. Sanctions were a unilateral torpedoing of the Polish economy won't cut any ice. The Americans will just reply that the Poles acted immorally in crushing Solidarity." Nevertheless, Polish National Bank head Wladyslaw Baka, in talks in Washington last week with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank, made it clear that Poland was looking for a lead from the United States. He was quoted by PAP as saying that Poland would meet its financial obligations to the United States, "but not in a short time and not without a cooperative stand on the part of its foreign economic partners." He stressed that the U.S. "had a particular opportunity to play a part in the cooperative policy of Poland's partners interested in the settlement of Polish debt." Putting it more sharply, one senior banking official blamed Washington for obstructing talks with the World Bank, IMF and Paris Club of Western creditor governments in recent years and said it should now play a more positive role. "As a major superpower the United States can influence international organisations," he said, citing recent meetings aimed at stabilising currencies as an example of the extent to which Western nations were prepared to cooperate.