JAPAN CUTS CHIP SUPPLY, MAY PRODUCE SHORTAGE Japan is attempting to cut back semiconductor production to forstall the 300 mln dlrs in U.S. tariffs on Japanese electronic goods set to take effect April 17, industry analysts said. The move is likely to create a sharp price rise and a possible shortage of the key computer components in the next few weeks, the analysts said. "Prices have gone up for memory components, the mainstay of the Japanese semiconductor industry," analyst Drew Peck of Donaldson Lufkin and Jenrette said. But analysts said the price rises have been slight so far, and some questioned whether Japan would be successful in forcing Japanese companies to cut production in the long run. Others, however, were more optimistic, saying evidence was already in hand that Japan has cut back prodution and halted sales to the grey market, the third country brokers that sell chips at below production costs. "We've seen the grey market begin to dry up for D-RAMS, and it has virtually dried up for EPROMS," said Merrill Lynch analyst Thomas Kurlack of the two key memory chips used in computers. "Prices are inching up and lead times on deliveries are stretching," Kurlack added. Industry analysts said Japan's Ministry of International Trade and Industry, or MITI, had requested the cut backs in production to meet the terms of last year's semiconductor accord with the U.S. The Reagan adminsitration recently proposed tariffs on Japanese electronic goods, alleging that Japan had failed to live up to the accord and continued to dump the computer components in the U.S. market. But some analysts said Japan's attempt to mollify the U.S. was a double edged sword, and might be read at a subtle form of trade retaliation for the tariffs proposed by the U.S. As production in Japan is cut, these analysts argue, prices will rise in the U.S. and few American semiconductor manufactures will be able to take up the slack since most long ago exited the market for memory chips. U.S. computer makers that use the chips in their machines will then be pressured. "The Japanese are looking for ways to reduce trade pressures from Washington, but at the same time they're demonstating their muscle," analyst Peck said. The cut backs in Japanese production are expected to benefit U.S. chip makers. "I think this could be a very important factor for U.S. semiconductor manufacturers," industry analyst Elliot Levine of Ladenburg Thalmann Co said. But analyst Peck said, "it will take a few weeks to see whether Japan has genuinely cut production." He said Japanese manufactures were likely to view MITI's request unfavorably because chip capacity was still high and production cut backs would lead to significant write-offs in plant and equipment.