TRADERS SAY USDA MAY LOWER ORANGE CROP ESTIMATE The U.S. Department of Agriculture will probably decrease its estimate of the 1986/87 Florida orange crop today to as low as 123 mln boxes from 129 mln boxes, analysts and industry sources said. The Department is scheduled to release the new estimate at 1500 hrs EST (2100 gmt) today. Analysts said the market is anticipating a downward revision and much of the bullish impact has been discounted. The estimate, which the USDA has left unchanged since October, should be affected this time by recent evidence of a shortfall in the early and midseason crop now that those harvests are complete. Analysts said based on earlier USDA projections, the harvests should have been five to seven mln boxes larger than they were. "They are going to cut their estimate," said Bob Tate, an FCOJ broker with Dean Witter Reynolds in Miami. "The only question is whether they will admit the whole thing in this estimate." Tate said it is possible the USDA will lower its estimate by a lesser amount, perhaps three mln boxes, and continue to drop the estimate in subsequent reports as the crop picture clarifies. The late season harvest, consisting mostly of Valencia oranges, has not yet started, he noted. "They'll temper it," said Judy Weissman, FCOJ analyst with Shearson Lehman Bros. "The main drop will probably come in July." She expects today's estimate will be 126 mln boxes.