NO NEAR TERM BRAZIL COFFEE MOVES EXPECTED The Brazilian Coffee Institute, IBC, is unlikely to disclose its future export policy until the end of next week at the earliest, trade sources said. IBC president Jorio Dauster is meeting government ministers, producers, exporters and market analysts to assess Brazil's position in the light of the failure of talks in London earlier this month to set new International Coffee Organization, ICO, export quotas. "The failure of the talks means Brazil has got to rethink its position completely," one Santos exporter said. A meeting of the National Coffee Policy Council is set for Thursday, March 19, and Dauster will almost certainly explain his plan to members then before announcing any new measures. Dauster told reporters on his return from London last week that no decisions would be made on exports before he had held talks with all sectors of the industry. Exporters said Dauster is not under any great pressure to start marketing coffee immediately. World prices have been recovering from the lows which followed the collapse of the ICO talks and Brazil has sold a reasonable 5.5 mln bags of 60 kilos for export in the first four months of this year. The exporters said the key factor in the eventual opening of May and June export registrations will be the amount at which the contribution quota is set. With little expectation of other sales incentive mechanisms such as discounts, bonuses and price fall guarantees being introduced, the level of the quota will be decisive in determining the competitiveness of Brazilian coffee on world markets, they said. They noted that on February 16, the eve of a planned increase in the quota, April registrations were opened and closed after 1.68 mln bags were registered for export, a record amount for a single day. If May/June registrations are opened under similar conditions as before, Brazil would have no difficulty in selling at least 2.0 mln bags per month. "The problem would be how to limit sales," one exporter said. Brazil's present foreign trade and payments problems mean there are pressures from the government to boost exports to maximise foreign exchange earnings. However, the sources said they expect the IBC to adopt a marketing strategy aimed at regaining Brazil's dominant position as an exporter, but without causing a price war. General opinion among exporters was that Brazil would plan to export between 17 and 18 mln bags this year of which between 1.5 and 2.0 mln would be to non-members of the ICO. The 15.5 mln to 16 mln bags sold to members would be around the figure Brazil had offered to ship if ICO quotas were reintroduced, although Dauster has said this offer expired with the breakdown of talks. With the prospects of a crop of at least 28 mln bags this year, Brazil has the capacity to export up to 20 mln bags after meeting local consumption of around 7.0 mln, the sources added. However, the sources said Brazil is unlikely even to consider exporting such quantities, as this would almost inevitably lead to a fall in world prices as Brazil tried to encroach on other producers' markets. Maximum export earnings would be achieved by orderly marketing of traditional amounts, thus re-establishing Brazil's market share after last year's unusually low exports of 9.9 mln bags, enabling it to rebuild stocks and maintaining cordial relations with the producer group which backed Brazil's stance at the ICO talks, they added.