U.S. TRADE DATA SEEN AS KEY TO DOLLAR TREND The dollar's recent signs of stability have raised hopes that its 27-month decline may be nearly over, but most currency analysts refuse to commit themselves until after the June 12 release of U.S. trade data for April. "The trade data will be a deciding factor to see if the dollar has bottomed out," said Jim McGroarty of Discount Corp. Since February 1985, the dollar has nearly halved its value against the yen and the mark as part of an officially orchestrated campaign to make U.S. goods more competitive on world markets and redress gaping world trade imbalances. On April 27, the dollar fell to a 40-year low of 137.25 yen but has enjoyed a modest recovery over the last few weeks, topping 145 yen today for the first time in nearly two months. Many economists now believe that the dollar has fallen far enough to ease the trade deficit's drag on the U.S. economy. The U.S. trade gap narrowed to 13.6 billion dlrs in March from 15.1 billion in February and is expected to show continued improvement in April in volume, if not in real, terms. Keiichi Udagawa of Bank of Tokyo in New York said that if further progress is reported, the dollar would head back up towards 150 yen. "There is growing consensus that the dollar has bottomed out for the medium term," added Tom Campbell of First National Bank of Chicago. Other factors supporting this bullish view were growing expectations that Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker would be reappointed for a third four-year term in August, Japan's larger-than-expected economic stimulus package last week and more favorably technical chart signals, analysts said. The dollar was also aided by Japan's moves to dampen speculative selling in Tokyo and by reports of active central bank intervention to support the dollar. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said last week that the U.S. monetary authorities bought more than four billion dlrs during the February-April period -- the largest amount since the dollar crisis of the late 1970's. Discount Corp's McGroarty described the Fed's intervention volume as "impressive". James O'Neill of Marine Midland Bank was not so positive, however: "the dollar has not yet bottomed out. After the trade data are released, the dollar could fall towards 1.77 marks and 140 yen." Similarly, Natsuo Okada of Sumitomo Bank in New York warned, "I don't think the dollar has bottomed out yet." Although the dollar could rise as high as 146.50 yen, Okada said market impatience about the painstakingly slow decline of the U.S. trade deficit may lead to renewed pressure. Currency analysts also warned about an unfavorable reaction to the seven-nation economic Summit on June 8 to 10 in Venice, which is likely to focus on the implementation of previous commitments rather than yield any fresh initiatives. President Reagan said today, "economic policy decisions made last year in Tokyo and at this year's meetings of Group of Seven finance ministers in Paris and Washington cannot be ignored or forgotten." "The commitments made at these meetings need to be translated into action," he added in a speech, celebrating the 40th anniversary of the Marshall aid plan for Europe. Now that Tokyo has unveiled its fiscal stimulus package, analysts expected Bonn and the dollar/mark rate to bear the brunt of U.S. calls for further action. Marine Midland's O'Neill said, "pressure will build up on Germany to take stimulative action like Japan." Some Japanese bank dealers warned that although the dollar could hold above 145 yen for some months it could also come under attack again if it seems the latest economic package is not having much impact on Japan's economy and its trade surplus. Reflecting a longer-term uncertainty, some some trust banks and Japanese insurers are keeping their short dollar positons hedged against exchange losses in their foreign portfolios, while some others have started covering those short positions, Japanese bank dealers said.