DUTCH GROWTH LIKELY TO SLOW, JOBLESS RISE IN 1987 Leaks of a major Dutch official economic forecast due to be published on Monday indicate reduced economic growth and a renewed rise in unemployment this year, political and market sources say. Concern over an anticipated fall in Dutch competitiveness this year against a background of an average 2-1/2 pct wage increase, zero inflation and a firm guilder has triggered some calls for a change in monetary policy to help boost growth. But whatever the government's response, the central bank will stick to its policy of keeping the guilder firm, they say. The official forecasting agency Centraal Planbureau (CPB) publishes its 1987 outlook at the start of a week which will also see a key parliamentary debate on government finances and the economy. Merchant bank Pierson, Heldring en Pierson - in an estimate reflecting general sentiment - said last month that Dutch economic growth was now seen around one pct. Domestic consumer spending is not expected to offset the decline in export growth caused by slowing growth in West Germany, the main Dutch trading partner, and the lower dollar, Pierson said in its February economic outlook. The latest growth forecasts are well below a 1.5 to two pct growth figure seen by the CPB early last month and forecasts of 2.5 pct economic growth in 1987 made last September. The fall in unemployment is bottoming out and the government has already admitted it will not meet its goal of reducing unemployment by an annual 50,000 from 1986 to 1990. Some analysts and industry leaders have questioned central bank policy of pegging the guilder firmly to the mark and if necessary keeping interest rates up to support the guilder. Employers federation NCW chairman Fred Lempers criticised the guilder's revaluation in line with the West German mark in last January's European Monetary System (EMS) realignment and expressed concern over its effect on competitiveness. But the employers federation VNO noted the Dutch economy had become more competitive since 1980 and the fall of the dollar was affecting this gain more than the EMS realignment. Some analysts also question the central bank's decision not to copy the latest Bundesbank discount rate cut and instead lower money market rates and abolish a credit quota surcharge. Central bank president Wim Duisenberg has defended the move saying the bank had adjusted the rates with the most impact on the money market, noting "the (4.5 pct) discount rate is at the moment not the most important Dutch rate because it is already far below the market rates." Central bank officials say the heavy dependence on trade of the Dutch economy requires a stable exchange rate, and interest rate policies serve that goal. Analysts noted a large capital outflow from the Netherlands recently as foreign investments in Dutch stock are being sold to take profits. Loosening the tie between the guilder and the mark would reduce international confidence in the guilder and make it more dificult to attract foreign capital, they said, noting Dutch interest rates rose sharply when the guilder was not revalued completely in line with the mark in a 1983 EMS realignment. Many Dutch banks have reacted favourably to the decision not to copy the last German discount rate cut, but Pierson warned it could actually add to uncertainty over the guilder. Some analysts noted friction between the Finance Ministry and the central bank, with Finance Minister Onno Ruding having said before the Bundesbank discount rate cut he favoured lower Dutch rates but that the Germans should move first. One analyst said Ruding wanted to bring interest rates down to reduce the government debt burden. A Finance Ministry spokesman said lower interest rates were needed but denied any suggestion of conflicting views between the ministry and the central bank. "The cabinet's policy is steady, the guilder has to stay with the mark," he said.