ANALYSTS PEG U.S. COTTON SEEDINGS 10.6 MLN ACRES U.S. cotton farmers are likely to plant about 10.6 mln acres in the coming season, based on an average of estimates offered by cotton market analysts gearing up for the U.S. Agriculture Department's 1987 planting intentions report next Tuesday. The annual report gives cotton traders their first glimpse of what U.S. production might be in the 1987/88 season, which begins August 1. Trade and commission house forecasts ranged from 10.2 to 10.9 mln acres. On March 18 of last year, the USDA reported that cotton farmers in 1986 intended to plant 9.71 mln acres. Four months later, the USDA estimated that 9.67 mln acres had been planted as of June 1. By January, its estimate of 1986 planted acreage nationwide was 10.06 mln. Analysts said their forecasts for even greater acreage in 1987 were spurred in part by belief that this year's good demand and firm prices will be repeated next year. Analysts said those factors make cotton a profitable crop. "With cotton more attractive price-wise, I think there is going to be a switch in acreage from soybeans to cotton. Soybeans are dirt cheap," said Lisbeth Keefe of Cargill Investor Services, whose comments were echoed by other cotton market specialists. Changes in the U.S. cotton program also could lead to increased acreage, analysts said. They recalled that under the 1986 program, cotton farmers who used part of their crop as collateral for government loans were not responsible for the cost of storing that cotton in government warehouses. But under the 1987 plan, the government will not pick up the tab for storage. Analysts said the change will discourage some farmers from participating in the program, which could result in more cotton. "The cotton program stipulates a mandatory set-aside of 25 pct of a farmer's base acreage," noted Judy Weissman of Shearson Lehman Brothers. But farmers who elect not to participate in the program are free to plant all the acreage they have. Some analysts said cotton farmers in the high-yielding Western states would be most likely to steer clear of the program. "Western acreage should be up at least 20 pct," said one commission house analyst, whose estimate was based in part on forecasts made by the National Cotton Council during its annual meeting in late January. But others disagreed. "I think some Western growers have decided they should be in the program for security reasons. There's a lot of comfort in knowing you'll be guaranteed the government's loan price of 52.25 cents a lb. Anyone outside the program is subject to the wiles of the market," said Walter Brown, market analyst for a major California cotton producer. Some cotton specialists said their expectations for increased acreage might not be verified in Tuesday's planting intentions report. "Anything the USDA is announcing now is based on information they gathered before their cotton program was announced (on March 20)," one analyst cautioned. She said traders will get a better idea of next year's cotton output when the USDA's planted acreage report is released on July 9. Brown took that opinion a step further. "I don't think planted acreage is important. What counts is the abandonment rate," the difference between acreage planted and acreage harvested. Brown said the abandonment rate this year was "pretty high" at 15.5 pct because of weather problems in key producing states. "More normal would be about six pct," he said.