GLOBAL ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN RAISES NEW DEBT FEARS The global economy is expected to weaken this year, adding new worries to an already serious poverty outlook, economic analysts said. For finance ministers and central bankers attending this week's semi-annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, the new figures released by the IMF add an additional concern. The Fund estimated world output would only grow by 2.7 pct this year, versus 2.9 pct last year, and 3.1 pct in 1985. In the industrial countries, Gross National Product, a measure of all goods and services, was expected to decline to 2.3 pct this year, compared with 2.4 pct in 1986, the IMF said. For the developing countries, the Gross Domestic Product, another measure of economic growth, was expected to fall to 3.0 pct from 3.5 pct last year. The new figures are considered a major disappointment to the poorest countries. They had hoped that new vitality in the industrial countries brought on by a sharp decline in oil prices would assist their economic recovery and help them cope with growing mounds of debt. IMF officials, discussing their outlook, said they believed the industrial country economies would move up to an annual growth rate of three pct by the end of the decade. Economic analysts and the IMF have been saying for some time that the ability to keep the debt crisis from turning into an economic rout rests on sustained economic growth. Since the debtor countries must look to the wealthier states for markets for their products as well as financial assistance, economic weakness in the developed nations' economies poses fundamental worries. Debtor countries, including the very poorest states, have only a few avenues open to them for earning foreign exchange, including the key one of exports. The U.S. economy, which is in its fifth year of expansion, has served as a mainstay for developing country exports, but it too is seen as being rather feeble this year, growing by only 2.3 pct, according to the IMF. For this reason and because of a high trade deficit, the United States has been pressuring Japan and West Germany to ignite their economies but with little apparent success. The IMF study also examines the course of the dollar and the curious lack of impact it has had on the U.S. trade deficit. Reagan administration officials have been saying that the impact is now beginning to show up, although it has been much slower than expected. The IMF observed in its World Economic Outlook that "it has to be recognized that exchange rate adjustments take time to work through to payments flows -- probably at least three years to get a resonably complete effect." The report added, however, "the adjustments may take even more time on this occasion." REUTER^M